Texans Still Face Unfavorable Odds to Make Playoffs

The Houston Texans still have a bit of work to do before they can be considered among the top candidates to lift into this year's AFC playoff picture, even after their latest heroics in the past three weeks that have finally lifted them to above a .500 record this season.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, even after the results of Week 12 have played out across the league, the Texans have just a 33% chance of being among the top seven seeds to find their way into the postseason, which comes in as the 10th-ranked team among the AFC entirely.

Their odds to win the division are even steeper at just an 8% chance to uproot the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South after their own rock-solid start to the season has lifted them into being a near-playoff lock.

ESPN's Football Power Index, AFC playoff picture | ESPN Analytics

Of those teams currently in the Wild Card picture to sit above the Texans' chances in the eyes of ESPN's FPI, the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, LA Chargers, and Pittsburgh Steelers found themselves with better odds to claw into those top-seven seeds.

Texans Viewed as Longshot to Climb Into Playoffs

While the numbers may not exactly show it, hopes are far from dead for the Texans to keep building the momentum into a playoff appearance, and perhaps even a bit more favorable than ESPN projects.

Looking ahead on the schedule, the Texans have a bundle of critical games to get right, and that starts immediately next week against their division rival Colts for one of their two meetings this season. Winning one of those games is a must, but winning both doesn't just breathe life into their season, but perhaps their hopes of an AFC South victory too.

Oct 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

For Week 14, the task won't get any easier against a Wild Card-hungry Chiefs squad, who will be just as desperate as Houston to be among the final entries to the dance in the AFC. But again, if the Texans can take advantage of a critical game on the schedule, it not only boosts the chances of their own playoff appearance, but brings a major hit to one of their prime competitors.

Combine that with a couple of easy-going games at home against the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15 and 16, then a tough West Coast test against the Chargers for Week 17, a 3-0 or 2-1 stretch along here brings the Texans to eight or nine wins on the year.

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A playoff berth for Houston likely relies on a couple of more wins to come their way outside of that three-week pocket beyond facing the Colts and Chiefs. But if this defense remains elite and this offense continues building in the right direction, there's a clear vision to seeing that mountain climbed.

Simply put, the road to a third-straight playoff appearance for the Texans is far from out of the realm of possibilities, but there's extremely little margin for error.

A couple of losses might be just enough to squeeze Houston out of the race with too many losses, depending on how the coming weeks unravel around the league. That makes being on top of the details and execution for the next six weeks a defining factor of what that playoff outlook turns out to be.

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