Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose Rivalry Rematch at Bears

GREEN BAY, Wis. – For the second time in three weeks, the In this story will battle the Chicago Bears with first place in the NFC North on the line. The rematch will be played at Soldier Field, which has been a house of horrors for the home team.

Here are three reasons why the Bears will beat the Packers and put a stranglehold on the division lead. (The other side of this story will go live on Saturday morning.)

1. Last-Game Changes and Intangibles

At Lambeau Field a couple weeks ago, the Bears didn’t so much lose to the Packers as they ran out of time. Green Bay led 14-3 at halftime but failed to take complete control with the opening possession of the third quarter.

Ultimately, the Packers survived when, on fourth-and-1 from the 14, Keisean Nixon saved the day – and Evan Williams – with an end-zone interception. A better throw would have resulted in a touchdown and given the Bears a chance to win the game.

Aside from the interception, the Bears did whatever they wanted in the second half. Their four possessions produced a touchdown, field goal, touchdown and the game-ending interception. They gained 15 first downs in the second half compared to six in the first half. They controlled the ball for more than 20 minutes and ran 41 plays.

after rushing 20 times for 86 yards and the decisive touchdown in the first game.

“I'm excited for it. I think everybody's excited for it,” Bears quarterback Caleb Williams told reporters this week. “Even D.J. (Moore) said it after the game: We feel as if we let them off the hook. Part of that was us starting slow. Part of that was the explosive plays.

“We want to go out there and play our brand of football and that gives us the best shot to go win the game. That's starting fast, playing physical, executing plays the way that we know we can on offense, defense and special teams. Like I said, we're excited to go showcase that.”

A lot has changed over the last 13 days. And they almost all point in Chicago’s direction.

First, the obvious: Micah Parsons is on injured reserve.

Second: Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who leads the team in tackles and is second among NFL linebackers with four interceptions, is returning from a four-game stint on injured reserve.

“He’s an incredible linebacker, very athletic,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “The one thing he does really well in my opinion is he just covers ground in the pass game, and he can really just be in a lot of places at the same time and really pursue the ball. Really athletic, really big, really physical. He’s what a prototypical linebacker looks like, and he does a really nice job playing.”

Third: The Bears, even in defeat, must take confidence from how they dominated the second half.

Fourth: The Bears are at home.

Green Bay is 14-1 in its last 15 trips to Soldier Field. The Bears will be a confident and hungry bunch. Without Parsons, the Packers look vulnerable. They will smell blood in the water, which makes the start of the game critically important for the Packers to weather what’s sure to be an early storm.

"There doesn’t need to be much of a message here this week,” Bears coach Ben Johnson said. “They know. They know what's at stake.”

2. Weather and the Running Games

The weather outside isn’t going to be frightful, but playing quarterback isn’t going to be delightful.

The forecast is fitting for the Windy City.

“We start the game with sustained winds around 15 mph, gusts to 25 mph and, by the end of the game, we see winds sustained over 20 mph with gusts pushing 35 to mph,”Cheap Rs-flyfishing Jordan Outlet Accessibility Statement, Third: The Bears, even in defeat, must take confidence from how they dominated the second half.

Nothing impacts a quarterback more than wind. And that means the team with the better running game should have the advantage.

The Bears rank second with 152.2 rushing yards per game and fifth with 4.85 rushing yards per attempt. In Game 1, the Bears rushed for 138 yards. The good news for the Packers is they didn’t allow a single run of 10-plus yards on 32 rushing attempts. The bad news for the Packers is the Bears largely controlled the game in the second half, with Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift carrying 15 times for 77 yards.

Last week, with a kickoff temperature of 8 and a wind-chill of minus-2, the Bears ran the ball 33 times for 142 yards (4.3 average) against the powerful Browns defense. It marked the sixth time in their last seven games that the Bears rushed for at least 138 yards.

Chicago’s offensive line is a juggernaut, and it wore down the Packers in the second half. That formidable group will pose a major challenge for a Packers defense that will play without the relentless Micah Parsons.

“I think their run game’s been definitely a catalyst for the offense in terms of what they’ve been able to do,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They do a great job with both those backs. I think the offensive line, they come off the ball, they’re physical. They’ve upgraded, obviously, the talent there. And then they’ve got weapons on the perimeter, both at the tight end position and at the wide receiver position.

“When you combine good players with good scheme, generally speaking, you get good results.”

Meanwhile, the Packers’ best offensive lineman, right tackle Zach Tom, might not be available for Saturday and running back Josh Jacobs is dealing with a knee injury. Jacobs has been excellent the past three weeks but the Bears stuffed Browns rookie standout Quinshon Judkins to just 21 yards on 12 carries.

Jacobs called it a “chess match” after rushing 20 times for 86 yards and the decisive touchdown in the first game.

“Who want it more?” Jacobs said. “So, we going to see who want it more.”

3. The Obvious: Takeaways

The Bears are No. 1 in the league with 30 takeaways and No. 2 with 10 giveaways, meaning a league-best plus-20 in turnovers. They are first with 21 interceptions and third with nine fumble recoveries. It is total domination, and a major reason why the Bears are 10-4 and leading the North.

“When they get the opps, they make the plays,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “They do not drop the ball. They do a great job pursuing the ball, punching the ball. You can tell they’re well-coached in that regard. They don’t drop opportunities on interceptions, things like that. They make those plays. They’re very opportunistic. That’s one thing we got to make sure we’re on top of.”

Safety Kevin Byard leads the NFL with six interceptions, cornerback Nahshon Wright is tied for second with five interceptions and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is tied for sixth with four.

The Packers have lost the turnover battle in five games this season, going 1-3-1. After tying Dallas and beating Cincinnati, they lost to Carolina, Philadelphia and Denver. Jordan Love, who had been exceptional at avoiding turnovers this season, threw two interceptions in the loss to the Broncos.

“I think they’re a good defense, and I think you look at what they’ve done a good job at, I think they’ve thrived in creating turnovers,” Love said. “They’re No. 1 in the league in taking away the ball. I had the one interception in that game, but I think that’s when they’re at their best (is) when they’re being able to take the ball away from you.

“Looking back at it, we’ve just got to do a good job taking care of the ball. They do different things protection-wise and pressure-wise on third downs, so I think that’s another area where they thrive at is those third-and-long situations. They’re coming off a good game they had against the Browns, was able to watch that, but I think the biggest thing they do that’s good is taking away the ball.”

said Kevin Roth.

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