Louisville Report

Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Tuesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Matthew McGavic

Louisville forward Kasean Pryor (7) scored his first points since returning from last season’s injury as the Cardinals hosted Jackson State at the KFC Yum! Center on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2025.
Louisville forward Kasean Pryor (7) scored his first points since returning from last season’s injury as the Cardinals hosted Jackson State at the KFC Yum! Center on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2025. / Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
In this story:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (2-0, 0-0 SEC) on Tuesday, Nov. 11 at 8:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

UK

UofL

AP/USAT

9th/8th

12th/12th

SOS

248th

319th

SOR

56th

111th

NET

15th

28th

RPI

29th

188th

BPI

9th

3rd

KenPom

1st

11th

Torvik

11th

7th

EvanMiya

8th

9th

Team Leaders

UK

UofL

Points

Collin Chandler (14.5)

Khani Rooths (18.0)

Rebounds

Malachi Moreno (9.5)

J'Vonne Hadley (9.0)

Assists

Jaland Lowe (5.0)

Mikel Brown Jr. (7.5)

Steals

Four Tied (1.0)

Kobe Rodgers (3.0)

Blocks

Two Tied (1.0)

Sananda Fru (1.0)

Scoring

UK

UofL

In this story

92.0

105.0

Field Goal %

50.8

52.7

FGM/FGA Per Game

33.0/65.0

34.0/64.5

Three Point %

32.7

33.8

3PTM/3PTA Per Game

9.0/27.5

11.0/32.5

Free Throw %

70.8

76.5

FTM/FTA Per Game

17.0/24.0

26.0/34.0

Rebounding

UK

UofL

Rebounds Per Game

50.5

48.0

Off. Reb. Per Game

13.0

13.5

Def. Reb. Per Game

37.5

34.5

Rebound Margin

18.5

17.0

Defense

UK

UofL

Opp. In this story

55.0

57.5

Opp. FG%

29.2

31.7

Opp. 3PT%

20.7

28.3

Steals Per Game

5.0

11.5

PTM/3PTA Per Game

4.0

2.5

Steals Per Game

10.5

18.5

Ball Handling

UK

UofL

Nov 10, 2025

24.0

23.5

Louisville 87, Kentucky 83

9.5

13.5

Turnover Margin

1.0

5.0

Assist/Turnover Ratio

2.53

1.74

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 73.2 percent chance to win against Kentucky. Louisville has a BPI rating of 21.3 (3rd overall), whereas Kentucky has a BPI rating of 18.3 (9th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 51 percent chance to take down the Wildcats, with a projected final score of 84-83 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +25.25 (11th overall), whereas Kentucky has an adjusted efficiency margin of 29.32 (1st overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 68 percent chance to take down the Wildcats, with a projected final score of 84-79 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9331 (7th overall), whereas Kentucky has a "Barthag" of .9238 (11th overall).

- Personal Prediction: FGM/FGA Per Game.

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat.He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover.Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic
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