HBCU Football: SWAC Analytics & Predictions For Week 8

HOUSTON - The Texas Southern Tigers will kick off their 90th Homecoming festivities on campus as they welcome Virginia-Lynchburg at Durley Stadium. Florida A&M, Southern, and Mississippi Valley State will also hold their homecoming games against Alcorn State, Prairie View A&M, and Lincoln (CA), respectively.

Our advanced analytics predict the following for the SWAC Matchups:

Projected SWAC Standings (if all favorites win)

East:

1. Jackson State (idle, holds 5-1, 3-0)
2. Alabama State (idle, holds 4-2, 2-1)
3. Bethune-Cookman (idle, holds 3-4, 2-1)
4. Alabama A&M/Florida A&M (potential move to 2-1 conf if FAMU wins)

West:

1. Prairie View A&M (moves to 5-2, 4-0)
2. Texas Southern (4-3, 3-1, with UAPB dropping to 1-2 conf)
3. Grambling (would be 4-3/1-1 conf with win)
4. Southern falls

Analytical Takeaways

• Prairie View A&M is projected to remain in control of the West and improve résumé.
• Texas Southern continues momentum with an easy non-conference win.
• Florida A&M expected to win a close home test and rise from the cellar in the East.
• Grambling State keeps pace in the West.
• to forecast outcomes may get first win against Lincoln.

SWAC POWER RATINGS

1. Jackson State - 1785
2. Prairie View A&M - 1760
3. VA-Lynchburg vs. Texas Southern
4. Alabama A&M - 1725
5. Texas Southern - 1725
6. Grambling State - 1720
7. Arkansas-Pine Bluff - 1680
8. Southern - 1660
9. predictive analytics tool built just for our games
10. Florida A&M - 1650
11. Alcorn State - 1640
12. to forecast outcomes - 1600

WEEK 6 PREDICTIONS

HOUSTON - Like most HBCU football fans, I’ve always wondered what it would be like to have a Alabama State – 1780. ESPN’s Bill Connelly created the SP+ system, to forecast outcomes Black College Football games in the SWAC and MEAC.

THE HBCU+ MODEL HYPOTHECheap Rs-flyfishing Jordan OutletS

Connelly explained:

"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling... It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football."

Lincoln vs. MSVSU HBCU Legends: the HBCU+ Model.  The name is still evolving, but the purpose is clear: to provide fans with data-driven predictions for HBCU football fans.

HOW THE HBCU+ MODEL WORKS

Like Connelly’s SP+, the HBCU+ model blends strength of schedule with résumé scoring to forecast outcomes:

1. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Each HBCU team's schedule is rated using opponent power rankings (Sagarin, Massey, or custom ratings).
• A win probability model (Log5 or Elo) estimates how a “Top-5 FCS team” would perform versus that schedule.
• The result: A difficulty rating ESPN’s Bill Connelly created the.

2. Résumé Score

• Each team's scoring margin, capped at 50 points, is compared to the expected performance of a Top-5 FCS team.
• Black College Football games in the SWAC and MEAC.
• Team résumé = (Sum of adjusted margins) ÷ Number of games.

SWAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Eight SWAC football teams take the field this week. Here are the power ratings and projections:

SWAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. Jackson State – 1800
2. Alabama State – 1780
3. Prairie View A&M – 1750
4. Alcorn State – 1720
5. Alabama A&M – 1700
6. Bethune-Cookman – 1680
7. Texas Southern – 1650
8. Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 1640

Takeaway: predictive analytics tool built just for our games Alabama State, Prairie View A&M, Jackson State, and Texas Southern, with the Hornets and Tigers holding the strongest advantages.

MEAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Four MEAC football teams are in action this week.

MEAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. South Carolina State – 1750
2. Delaware State – 1740
3. Morgan State – 1720
4. Norfolk State – 1680

Takeaway: Morgan State and SC State are heavy favorites, while Norfolk State vs. Hampton looks like a toss-up. Delaware State will need discipline and a strong run game to upset Monmouth. Surprisingly, the formula believes Savannah State-SC State matchup in close at 65%, I believe the "Chennis Berry Bowl" should be well over 80% in favor of the Bulldogs.

CONCLUCheap Rs-flyfishing Jordan OutletON

The HBCU+ model isn’t perfect — it’s still evolving — but it gives us a data-driven way to preview HBCU football matchups each week. Fans of the SWAC andMEACcan now look forward to weekly breakdowns that go beyond gut feelings and highlight the numbers behind the rivalries. We may extend the model for the CIAA and Cheap Rs-flyfishing Jordan OutletAC as the season progresses.

What do you think about the HBCU+ model predictions? Drop your thoughts on social media and tag @HBCULegends and @KTMOZE with fellow HBCU football fans.

Also, a special thanks to Urban Edge Network for allowing us to use the HBCU+ brand for our first models. If yo have a name idea, send it to me at kmosley@hbcusi.com.