Ranking the Easiest to Hards Paths to the CFP National Championship Game

The race for the national championship begins on Friday as the 2025 College Football Playoff kicks off in Norman, Oklahoma. Twelve teams have qualified into the bracket and will try to take home the title over the next month.

Every team has a chance to make a run, but not every path to the championship game is equal. The top four seeds—Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech—all have byes and will automatically advance to the quarterfinals. From there, the difficulty of matchups varies across the bracket.

Before the CFP gets started, here’s a look every team’s path to the national championship game ranked from easiest (12) to hardest (1).

12. Indiana

Indiana will not play until the CFP quarterfinals when they will take on either Alabama or Oklahoma. Both Oklahoma and Alabama have shown significant flaws as of late, and neither have complete offenses. Alabama nearly cost themselves a spot in the playoff due to their play in November. Though Oklahoma has won four straight—including over Alabama—three of those four wins have been one-score games. Regardless of who wins, Indiana will should be able to defeat them to move on to the semifinal.

If Indiana wins the quarterfinal, they will take on James Madison, Oregon or Texas Tech. Indiana defeated Oregon 30-20 earlier this season, and has a defense that should be able to stifle Texas Tech’s potent offense. If James Madison unexpectedly advances, count on Curt Cignetti to take care of his former squad.

11. Georgia

Following their bye, the Bulldogs will then play either Tulane or Ole Miss in the quarterfinals—both favorable outcomes. Georgia previously defeated Ole Miss 43-35 this season in a game that saw them stymie the Rebels’ typically explosive run offense.

If Georgia can take care of business against either Tulane or Ole Miss, they will face Miami, Texas A&M or Ohio State in the semifinals. Neither matchup would be easy, particularly if they face Ohio State, but Georgia overall has a better path to the semifinals than a number of their counterparts.

Related: Breaking Down Georgia’s Path to a College Football Playoff National Title

10. Ohio State

The reigning national champions will start their playoff with a matchup against either Miami or Texas A&M. Though both teams have the potential to cause an upset, Ohio State’s defense that allows just 8.2 points per game, should be able to handle either the Hurricanes or the Aggies.

Even if Ohio State faces a potent offense like Ole Miss or Georgia in the following round, their defense will give them a strong chance at making it through their side of the bracket and potentially back to the national championship game.

9. Texas Tech

Of teams with a first-round bye, Texas Tech has the toughest path to the national championship. Barring a James Madison, Texas Tech would begin their playoff against No. 5 Oregon followed by potential matchups vs. Indiana, Oklahoma or Alabama.

It will be interesting to see how the Red Raiders perform against non-Big 12 teams, but they certainly have the talent to contend. Texas Tech not only won the Big 12, but dominated as they finished the year with a FBS-leading 410 point differential. They are undefeated this season behind quarterback Behren Morton, but he will be tested as he faces top competition during the playoff.

8. Oregon

No. 5 Oregon starts out the playoff with a favorable matchup against No. 12 James Madison. The Ducks will be expected to win and advance to the quarterfinals for the second straight season where they would face Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are by no means an easy opponent, but facing them in the quarterfinal is more favorable than going up against a top-three seed like Ohio State or Georgia. Oregon then would go up against Indiana, Alabama or Oklahoma. Indiana did take down Oregon earlier this season, but Alabama or Oklahoma would be advantageous opponents for the Ducks.

7. Ole Miss

Ole Miss enters the playoff with the challenge of playing without head coach Lane Kiffin after his departure for LSU. They begin the CFP with a rematch against Tulane, who they handily defeated 45-10 earlier this season.

The Rebels should be able to beat Tulane again, but after they would head into a daunting matchup against Georgia, who previously defeated them this season. Ole Miss has the firepower to keep up with Georgia and other top teams, but their defense could be the team’s achilles heel if they can’t slow down their opponents.

6. Texas A&M

Following a loss in their final game of the season to Texas, Texas A&M now finds themselves playing in the first round of the playoff. The Aggies will fortunately have homefield advantage as they take on Miami.

Texas A&M has shown the ability to win close games or come through in the clutch like they did against Notre Dame or South Carolina, but they’ve also played down to competition like Auburn, Arkansas or the aforementioned South Carolina. They will not be able to afford those type of performances in a bracket that includes excellent defensive teams like Georgia and Ohio State.

5. Miami

After sneaking in the tournament, Miami is headed to College Station where they will play in one of the loudest environments as they take on Texas A&M. If they can outlast the Aggies on the road they would face Ohio State and then Georgia or Ole Miss.

If quarterback Carson Beck can stay hot—he’s thrown at least three touchdowns in each of his last three games—it will give the Hurricanes a real chance down the stretch. Miami has the ACC’s top defense in total yards and points allowed per game, and an offense that can contend if Beck is on his game.

4. Alabama

Alabama begins the CFP with a rematch against Oklahoma, who beat them by two points a month ago. This is a tough but winnable game for Alabama, who does have a good chance at advancing to the quarterfinals.

It is harder to see Alabama advancing past the quarterfinal. Their offense was practically nonexistent in their SEC championship game loss, and it’s hard to see them keeping up with Indiana, Oregon or Texas Tech in the later rounds unless quarterback Ty Simpson gets hot again.

Related:How Alabama Can Beat Oklahoma in First Round of CFP

3. Oklahoma

Though Oklahoma will be at home for their first round matchup against Alabama, the Crimson Tide get a slight edge over Oklahoma due to the even more dreadful state of the Sooners’ offense. Oklahoma is not consistent in either the run or the passing game, and that will do them no favors in a bracket that includes top-six defenses like James Madison, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon—if they can get past Alabama in Round 1.

The Sooners likely would need quarterback John Mateer to turn his season around after a hand injury has hampered him for much of 2025. If Mateer can return to 2024 form, it could provide a needed spark for Oklahoma’s offense.

2. James Madison

James Madison boasts a top-five rushing attack and defense in yards per game, but they have yet to play many power-four opponents. They face the toughest team in the first round, Oregon, and will have to try to keep up with a much higher level of competition from Oregon to Texas Tech and Indiana. Without more explosives in the passing game and experience against top teams, it’s hard to see the Dukes getting past their side of the bracket.

1. Tulane

Tulane made their way to the CFP for the first time this season, and their reward will be to face an Ole Miss team that blew them out earlier this year. If the Green Wave manage to get past the Rebels, the road ahead will only be more grueling with a matchup against Georgia followed by Ohio State, Texas A&M or Miami.

More College Football on Sports Illustrated