UConn vs. USC Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Elite 8

Paige Bueckers and the UConn Huskies entered the Sweet 16 as the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament, and they’ve done nothing to change that thinking heading into the Elite 8 against the USC Trojans.

UConn rode a 40-point game from Bueckers – and a huge second half overall – to knock off Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Now, the Huskies are favored as the No. 2 seed against No. 1 USC.

Why? Well, USC lost star guard JuJu Watkins in the second round to a torn ACL, and it narrowly beat Kansas State to advance to the Elite 8. 

During the regular season, USC beat this UConn team with Watkins healthy, but this is a totally different matchup without the All-American guard.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this NCAA Tournament matchup. 

UConn vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

USC +13.5 -110.

Spread

• UConn -13.5 (-110)
• USC +13.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• UConn: -1100
• USC: +650

Total

• 139.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

UConn vs. USC How to Watch

• How to Watch TV: ESPN
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Spokane Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Date: Monday, March 31
• Venue: Spokane Arena

UConn vs. USC Key Players to Watch

UConn

Paige Bueckers: Over her last two NCAA Tournament games, Bueckers has 74 points, dominating as a scorer. She put the Huskies on her back in the second half in the Sweet 16, and there’s very little doubt that she’s the best player in the country. It’ll be interesting to see how USC will handle guarding Bueckers and this vaunted UConn offense. 

USC

Kiki Iriafen: With Watkins out for the season, Iriafen – a projected top pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft – is going to be called upon to carry the load on offense. Iriafen scored just seven points against Kansas State, and the Trojans needed a big second half to pull off a win. If she doesn’t score at a high rate in this game, the Trojans are going to have a tough time pulling out the upset. 

UConn vs. USC Prediction and Pick

USC trailed by several points at the half against Kansas State before turning things around, but it won’t be able to get away with that against the Huskies, who are 3-0 against the spread in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bueckers is on another level scoring the ball right now, and UConn has been an elite defensive team all season long, ranking No. 1 in opponent points per game and No. 4 in opponent field goal percentage per game.

That’s going to make things tough on a USC group that is down its No. 1 option on offense. 

It’s also really important to note that the game the Trojans won against the Huskies earlier this season – by two points – came with Watkins in the lineup for USC and Azzi Fudd out of the lineup for UConn.

I’ll back the Huskies to advance to the Final Four on Monday night. 

Pick: UConn -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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