Michigan State vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Tuesday, Nov. 18

The No. 17 Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats kick off the State Farm Champions Classic on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats are looking to bounce back from a loss to rival Louisville last week, the team’s only game against a ranked opponent to date. Kentucky is still 3-1, as it knocked off Eastern Illinois by 46 points on Friday.

Guard Denzel Aberdeen had a big game against Louisville for the Wildcats, and he’ll look to take control of Tuesday’s matchup with Tom Izzo’s Spartans.

Michigan State has five players averaging 10.0 or more points per game through three games, taking down Colgate, then-No. 14 Arkansas and San Jose State to open the season. Michigan State’s win over Arkansas was by just three points, but it is undefeated heading into this top-25 matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for Tuesday night’s contest. 

Michigan State vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total

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Spread

• Michigan State +5.5 (-110)
• Kentucky -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Michigan State: +200
• Kentucky: -245

Total

• 154.5 (I think Izzo’s group can hang around in this matchup on Tuesday night.&nbsp)

Michigan State vs. Kentucky How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 18
• Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
• Over -110/Under -110
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 18
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Michigan State vs. Kentucky Key Player to Watch

Jaxon Kohler, Forward, Michigan State

The Spartans have deployed a balanced attack in the 2025-26 season with five different players averaging double figures scoring the ball, but Kohler is leading the way.

The senior leads the team in points (14.3), rebounds (13.3) and is tied for the lead in blocks (1.0) so far this season. He hasn’t shot the ball terribly well (42.0 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from 3), but he’ll be one of the focal points on offense for this Spartans group.

Kentucky struggled to defend Mike Brown Jr. and Ryan Conwell (combined for 53 points) in a loss to Louisville, so it may be overcautious on Michigan State’s guards in this one. That could open up some one-on-one chances for Kohler, who has already racked 16 offensive rebounds in three games this season.  

Michigan State vs. Kentucky Prediction and Pick

There is some decent experience on this Michigan State team, and it showed in a close win over the Razorbacks earlier this season.

Now, the Spartans are underdogs in a neutral site matchup with a talented Kentucky team that head coach Mark Pope has admitted that he wishes he was further along with this season. 

“For all of our guys, this is just a learning curve,” Pope said. “I wish that I was — I’ll be really bluntly honest with you guys — I wish I was farther ahead right now. I wish that I was further ahead with this group. Maybe it’s been complicated that we, you know — I’m trying to figure out why I’m not further ahead with this group in terms of just this group’s identity.” 

That’s not a great sign when a coach has a team heavy with transfers, freshmen and some players that didn’t have major roles on a team last season. The only starter returning from last season’s team is Otega Oweh, leaving the Cats with some work to do early in the campaign before SEC play.

So, I don’t mind taking the points with the Spartans, who are 14th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency this season. While Kentucky is highly rated (No. 4) in KenPom, it already struggled against a ranked opponent, allowing 96 points in that game.

I think Izzo’s group can hang around in this matchup on Tuesday night. 

In this story (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Michigan State: +200.

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