First to Forde: Best Picks Against the Spread for College Football Week 13

We're officially in the final stretch of the 2025 edition of First to Forde. Pat Forde needs just 10 more correct college football against the spread picks to win the friendly competition. Iain MacMillan needs to get on a hot streak to close out the season if he wants any hope of pulling off the comeback.

We move on to Week 13 and the penultimate week of the regular season. Unless Forde goes 10-0 in the final two weeks of the regular season, the competition will leak into championship week and potentially into the bowl season.

Let's take a look at their top five spread picks for Week 13.

Pat's Week 13 Picks

Army -9.5 vs. Tulsa (via FanDuel)

The Golden Hurricane gave up 367 rushing yards to Navy’s option attack earlier this year. The Cadets are coming off a valuable, late-season open date for health and rest. Game-time temperatures could be in the 30s. It all adds up.

Arizona -6.5 vs. Baylor (via BetMGM)

Wildcats are streaking, having won three in a row. Bears are sliding, having lost three out of four. The Baylor run defense might have cashed it in for the year.

Kentucky +10 at Vanderbilt (via DraftKings)

The Wildcats have won three in a row, getting their defense back in order and getting improved play from freshman quarterback Cutter Boley. I expect Vandy to still win, but it will be by single digits.

Arizona State -6.5 at Colorado (via BetMGM)

The Buffaloes are very bad, and Sun Devils backup-turned-starting quarterback Jeff Sims comes in with some motivation. Two years ago, he was the starter for Nebraska at Folsom Field and played very poorly in a field-storming Colorado win. Sims has been really good since replacing injured Sam Leavitt. Look for him to have a big payback game.

North Carolina State +5 vs. Florida State (via BetMGM)

The Wolfpack are 4-1 at home, with wins over currently ranked Virginia and Georgia Tech. The Seminoles are winless on the road.

Iain's Week 13 Picks

Louisville +2.5 vs. SMU (via DraftKings)

Don't let their two recent losses fool you, this Louisville Cardinals team is still one of the best teams the ACC has to offer. The Cardinals enter Week 13 ranking 23rd in the country in adjusted net EPA per play, while the Mustangs rank 34th in that metric. Expect both quarterbacks in this game to have a heavy workload. SMU and Louisville rank 19th and 21st in passing play percentage, with over 54% of their plays being pass plays. That's great news for the Cardinals, who have the far superior pass defense. Louisville ranks 12th in opponent dropback EPA, while SMU ranks 50th in that metric. The stylistic advantage goes to the Cardinals, so I'll take the points with Louisville in this ACC showdown.

Oklahoma -7.5 vs. Missouri (via BetMGM)

The key to beating Missouri is stopping the run. Missouri runs the ball on 58.09% of its plays, which is the 23rd highest run play rate in the country. 55.72% of their yards gained come on the ground as well, which is the eighth-highest mark. Unfortunately for them, the Tigers now have to face one of the best run defenses in the country. Oklahoma leads all teams in opponent yards per carry, allowing just 2.3 yards per rush. They're in a great spot to shut down Missouri completely.

Oregon -9.5 vs. USC (via DraftKings)

These two teams have quietly been two of the best teams in the country in some metrics, including ranking second and third in net adjusted EPA per play. With that being said, the one unit in this game that's the ugly duckling is USC's defense, and that is going to be the difference-maker in this game.
The Trojans rank 52nd in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and 79th in opponent success rate. Having to now hit the road to take on a team as deep and as well-rounded as Oregon is going to be a tough task to conquer. If this were a home game for USC, I might feel differently, but defense wins championships, and the Ducks' defense is going to do some impressive work and lead Oregon to the win and cover.

Arkansas +9.5 vs. Texas (via FanDuel)

The Arkansas offense is good enough to hang with any team in the offense, and I think the Razorbacks are live to win this game against a deflated Texas team whose playoff odds were dashed with a blowout loss to Georgia last week. Arkansas is averaging 6.9 yards per play this season, which is 1.4 more yards per play than Texas. That could be enough to keep the deficit in this game to single digits.

TCU +1.5 vs. Houston (via BetMGM)

The Houston defense has done a great job stopping the run this season, but the Cougars have struggled to stop the pass. Houston ranks 64th in opponent yards per pass attempt, giving up 7.1 yards per throw. That could lead to some troubles for them this week when they take on a TCU team that gets the bulk of its yards by throwing the ball. 70.04% of its offensive yards gained this season have come from throwing the ball, which is the 19th-highest rate in college football. Josh Hoover is going to be able to carve up the Houston secondary and lead the Horned Frogs to a win in this battle of Texas.

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North Carolina State Wolfpack.

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